Keywords 1 population zero growth

Population zero growth may not be a good thing

National bureau of statistics, deputy director of the ZhangWeiMin: the basic state policy ofmbt shoes sale family planning has been well executed, population growth will continue to fall and is expected to reach population in 2032 years before and after zero growth.

Beijing university sociology department professor, demographers LiuJieHua to zero growth forecast, said the time although slightly different, but generally is about the same, 2033 years in 2032, forecasting, is about 10 years ago after 2040, now can enter the zero growth ahead, this and children less closely related.

Zero growth, the number of people realize before or will increase, but more need to focus the change of the structure of population, especially age structure changes, such as the proportion of children and the elderly labor and specific proportion of sustained economic development in the future, can maintain investment, consumption and Labour are very critical problem.

Think about how LiuJieHua think zero growth, not simple judge whether it is good or bad, "used to think that zero growth is a good thing, that it is considering population is people 'mouth', he should have the resources like food, but it was also found that population also is a person 'hands', is the Labour and family support, to zero growth not completely is a good thing, should see structure changes."

Meanwhile, aging with children reduce and elderly faster growth is a common trend. LiuJieHua said, "the problem and we are currently discussing about the demographic dividend, birth population less and less, old people more and more about the future of labor supply, is a big challenge, especially we still labor-intensive. Another very important question, although government in increasing the input, but China aged still mainly with family, children aged less means endowment resources decrease, how future support endowment is a huge problem."

Keywords 2 family planning

Have fewer not said, "only have a"

The national bureau of statistics MaJianTang: adhere to the basic state policy of family planning, and on this basis, both present and long-term interests of scientific research, carefully evaluated, cautiously, progressively perfect family planning policies.

For the family planning policy, LiuJieHua think, adhere to the basic state policy of family planning is a very long-term task, but in the past, understand family planning is the one-child policy, this viewpoint is constantly changing, have fewer not say "just one child", want to maintain the sustainable development of society, the rational scope to adjust gradually, such as the "double alone by now can have two kids, become" alone "can have two, these years slowly will change. In fact all mention agenda, and some provinces have begun to do this work.

He thinks, will surely won't give up the family planning policy, but two foetuses three foetuses were planning the idea, according to the researchers, a decade or longer time, national whatever city people, both still is a country not only child, can generally born two foetuses. But in transition, always incremental, such as the "double alone" transition to "alone", to investigate the effect of long-term policy, if the accumulated two foetuses words, general release zero growth is not 2032 years, may be delayed.

As for the policy orientation, all LiuJieHua analysis, a family planning regulation are formulated to the provinces, provinces, including birth have long-term monitoring various changes fertility rates, decided whether to take policy adjustment or perfect, but not one size fits all across the country, affirmation is part of release part of begin a gradual.

He thinks some low birth regions, such as Shanghai, Beijing, tianjin and some urbanization faster areas, low fertility rate, be about to consider begin to adjust. The fertility rate is a critical about 1.8, these areas are relatively low, we need to make adjustments.

Keywords 3 floating population

Regional economic subject to population flow

MaJianTang: residence of the national bureau of statistics in the ground that registerMBT Staka with account township street inconsistent and leave account for more than six months of the population, the ground that register with the fifth national population census, growth 81.03% compared.

For the developed areas, because there is lots of floating population, and therefore is not feel short of labor, need not do population policy adjustments. LiuJieHua think, these areas enjoy demographic dividend are to rely on foreign population, and these Labour not long-term, fixed, in the future these people flow will in regional economic has very big effect.

He for example Beijing, think Beijing demographic dividend is also a temporary, short-term, do not solve binary system, these people in urban stability, now is difficult to more than 10 million were largely young Labour.

LiuJieHua think, now 13.39 billion population, two more than 100 million groups need special attention, "floating population" and "aging population". The most important is the social fusion of the floating population. He thinks, 2 million mobile population, and only "entrance", but no fusion system arrange, are going to be a big problem.

In addition, the equal access to public service, although the five years or decades entirely do not registered population census register population and the convergence is difficult, but must have the schedule, eliminate locals and self-evident in treatment and service of the differences. To let outsiders who become social stability of participants and facilitator, such society can remain stable.

13.7 million people without a census register, for LiuJieHua thinks, although this part of people from total is not particularly big, but and past when conceal, omission statistics have relationships that some people may be reluctant to quote, such as collection of this part of the social compensation fee, giving birth to a child later don't declare.

The government will provide public services and various kinds of information collected population of more than 1,000 million, it should be larger proportion of damnation. Because the current public policy formulation all according to head to calculate, MBT Kipimo clogs such as education, health, etc, this will be very a interest groups, will gradually to solve this problem.